because i nailed the superbowl
Well... my score was almost on the money, but I was not able to foresee the involvement of the officiating staff and that changed the outcome of the game. Had the refs not carried an agenda into the game, the final score would have been the 20 - 13 final that I promised. Damn the man! It's always something! I guess we should rank bookies as one of the more powerful entities working behind the curtain.
So, with that in mind, I will now prognosticate on what I think will happen at the upcoming Oscars. I usually miss one out of the biggies, but that's still enough of a record to make some money in your office pool. The few ringers that have stumped me have haunted my soul and they make me sweat every time I lay down my picks. I can never tell which ringer it's going to be. I think I have this down to a science, you tell me...
First, I need to tell you how oscar voting works and what trends we have seen in the past.
Oscars are voted on by the academy of motion picture arts and sciences which is made up of former actors, directors, editors, etc. People that have been involved in film making in one way or another and have, what the academy feels, is an insider knowledge into the craft that we, the lowly nobodies, have no clue about. It starts back in December when the major studios start to lobby the members in the trade magazines such as the Hollywood Reporter and Variety. They take out full page ads asking members to nominate their film for respective categories. The members are then sent a nomination ballot and they write in their choices and send in whom they feel ought to be recognized. I say recognized, and not "win" as being nominated carries with it just as much clout as actually winning. Sometimes it carries more weight. If you won once. That's nothing. If you have never won, but have been nominated five times, that means you are something. Anyway, the top vote getters are announced in January and then the real campaigning begins. Miramax is usually the best at campaigning for their films. They could take that talent to politics and make a real impact on the world stage if they wanted too. They're that good. (Clint Eastwood is second best)
If you are a member that has not seen one of the films nominated, don't worry, the studios send out a special version of the movie to your house. If you prefer to see them on the big screen, you can go to one of hundreds of special screenings of the film that the studios put on specifically for you. Most of the members are well into their late 60's or 70's and they rarely watch most of the movies. Who has the time? In any year, there are fifty films, that you haven't seen, that are nominated and you don't want to watch half of them if you are just looking at their "editing".
The final voting is done with another mail in ballot and that's usually finished off before the end of February. The votes are sent to Price Waterhouse in New York where they are tabulated and the winners name is printed on a card for the big show. These cards are held in a vault which is sealed and guarded by elderly ladies that love to talk your ear off, which prevents most people from coming anywhere near the vault.
The votes are then sent to Hollywood the day before the show and are held in a briefcase which is handcuffed to a representative of Price Waterhouse. The statues that are handed out have nothing printed on them and are just replicas of the actual awards which the winner will finally receive. It's not until you send the replica back in do they print your name on it. This can take up to nine months. Most people forget to send them in.. Odd isn't it? If you have never seen an actual oscar, or held one, they are pretty dull looking compared to the SAG Award or the Golden Globe, but the Oscar is heavier, both spiritually and literally.
The academy votes following these guidelines... Traditionally.
1. Two for one. If two people are nominated in the same category for the same film, they negate each other and neither one wins. Example: Susan Surandon and Geena Davis in "Thelma and Louise". One can not win over the other. It has never been done.
2. Ugly, age, and disability are always front runners. Examples: Geoffory Rush in "Shine". Daniel Day Lewis in "My Left Foot". Charlize Theron in "Monster". The few times that this hasn't been the case: Tom Cruise in "Born on the Fourth of July" and Brad Pitt in "12 Monkeys". Otherwise the academy loves a crippled old ugly person. If they're gay. BINGO! The deeper the debilitation, the stronger the chances for the award. Example: Dustin Hoffman in "Rain Man" and Tom Hanks in "Philadelphia".
3. Career. If an actor has been around awhile without ever having won the award, they are automatic winners. The only time this hasn't been true is with that old lady from "Titanic". Other than that, old "friends" always get the nod. It's a charity vote and it sucks.
4. Dark Horse. There is a streak of youth in the academy that somehow is always able to show that "impact on the art" is more important than actual, "talent". This was true in the case of "Midnight Cowboy" and "American Beauty". Both films were average in skill level, yet both won the big award. This sentiment is what wins Clint Eastwood most of his awards. "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby" were not the best films of that year by far, but Clint is a publicity machine. He spends little on his films so he can spend three times as much promoting them to the academy. Not you! The academy. He loves to play the Career card with the Dark Horse twist. "My films are not showy, just great!" ... Very broody. Very Clint.
5. If you ain't never heard of them, don't vote for them. The only category in which a nobody will win the academy award is "supporting role". These categories are set up to recognize nobodies that may be something in the future. Sadly, this can also be a kiss of death for some. Examples: Mira Sorvino, Marisa Tomei, Cuba Gooding, Timothy Hutton. These are people that shined in one role and then fell off the face of the planet. If they hadn't won the award, you wouldn't even know who I was talking about. (Do you remember the name of the guy from "The Crying Game" that lost?) Sometimes this award is also were they will recognize an old friend on his way out, or so it would seem. Example: Paul Scofield in "Quiz Show".
6. Politics are bad. If your film, or you personally, or your performance has political overtones, forget it. No one likes a preacher. This is also called the Oliver Stone/Tim Robbins condition. Both men have made interesting films but they always have secret agendas to them and so therefore they rarely get nods. Tim Robbins does get nods, but he is not as "loud" politically as he used to be.
7. Don't show, or reject the award, and it's never again. The award has been given out to two big named stars that refused it; Marlon Brando and George C. Scott. Neither man ever won the award after their snubbing.
8. Never been done before. The academy loves to shock you, as they see it. In their minds, voting for the first black actor or the first Latino actor or a child, is always a good way to mix things up. However, once it's done, it takes twenty years before it will happen again. So, as they say, "Don't bet on the young colored horse to win." This trend is actually disappearing as of late because the old bigoted members are dying off. Thankfully.
9. The best sunset always wins the best picture. Historically, the film with the best vision of the sun setting or rising or breaking through the clouds, is always the winner. Old people love a good sunset as they see sunsets, metaphorically, as the best part of life, which is where most of them are. So it's tongue in cheek to them.
10. Money. Or the Jerry Bruckeheimer rule. If you make shit, you are shit. The academy doesn't like money makers. They like film. If you're using film to make money, then don't look for a nod.
11. Television. If you are a television star or dabble in television with a certain amount of frequency, forget it. The lesser art of television is enough to screw you out a nod.
12. One face, one role. If you are one dimensional and can only pull off one character, forget it. This could be called the Keanu Reeves/Christopher Walken award. True, Walken did get a nod earlier in his career, but never again. He is going to have to wait for the "career" nod and win.
Okay, that's it. Take these rules and apply them to this year's nominees. See what you come up with. If you were worried about the other spots....
As far as the technical awards. They don't even make the show. They are usually handed out a day before in a small ceremony which is held in a hotel ballroom and they only get a small mention on the nationally televised award show. These awards are all voted on by technical specialists and so therefore, are genuine awards. Thankfully, the aging academy had no say in this department.
I will post my choices for the winners tomorrow. For now, take the rules from above and visit oscar.com to size up who you think will win and then we can compare notes tomorrow. Be advised, the academy does nominate people that they know will never win. The nomination is their reward... That's the way they see it. Look at them as fillers.
So, with that in mind, I will now prognosticate on what I think will happen at the upcoming Oscars. I usually miss one out of the biggies, but that's still enough of a record to make some money in your office pool. The few ringers that have stumped me have haunted my soul and they make me sweat every time I lay down my picks. I can never tell which ringer it's going to be. I think I have this down to a science, you tell me...
First, I need to tell you how oscar voting works and what trends we have seen in the past.
Oscars are voted on by the academy of motion picture arts and sciences which is made up of former actors, directors, editors, etc. People that have been involved in film making in one way or another and have, what the academy feels, is an insider knowledge into the craft that we, the lowly nobodies, have no clue about. It starts back in December when the major studios start to lobby the members in the trade magazines such as the Hollywood Reporter and Variety. They take out full page ads asking members to nominate their film for respective categories. The members are then sent a nomination ballot and they write in their choices and send in whom they feel ought to be recognized. I say recognized, and not "win" as being nominated carries with it just as much clout as actually winning. Sometimes it carries more weight. If you won once. That's nothing. If you have never won, but have been nominated five times, that means you are something. Anyway, the top vote getters are announced in January and then the real campaigning begins. Miramax is usually the best at campaigning for their films. They could take that talent to politics and make a real impact on the world stage if they wanted too. They're that good. (Clint Eastwood is second best)
If you are a member that has not seen one of the films nominated, don't worry, the studios send out a special version of the movie to your house. If you prefer to see them on the big screen, you can go to one of hundreds of special screenings of the film that the studios put on specifically for you. Most of the members are well into their late 60's or 70's and they rarely watch most of the movies. Who has the time? In any year, there are fifty films, that you haven't seen, that are nominated and you don't want to watch half of them if you are just looking at their "editing".
The final voting is done with another mail in ballot and that's usually finished off before the end of February. The votes are sent to Price Waterhouse in New York where they are tabulated and the winners name is printed on a card for the big show. These cards are held in a vault which is sealed and guarded by elderly ladies that love to talk your ear off, which prevents most people from coming anywhere near the vault.
The votes are then sent to Hollywood the day before the show and are held in a briefcase which is handcuffed to a representative of Price Waterhouse. The statues that are handed out have nothing printed on them and are just replicas of the actual awards which the winner will finally receive. It's not until you send the replica back in do they print your name on it. This can take up to nine months. Most people forget to send them in.. Odd isn't it? If you have never seen an actual oscar, or held one, they are pretty dull looking compared to the SAG Award or the Golden Globe, but the Oscar is heavier, both spiritually and literally.
The academy votes following these guidelines... Traditionally.
1. Two for one. If two people are nominated in the same category for the same film, they negate each other and neither one wins. Example: Susan Surandon and Geena Davis in "Thelma and Louise". One can not win over the other. It has never been done.
2. Ugly, age, and disability are always front runners. Examples: Geoffory Rush in "Shine". Daniel Day Lewis in "My Left Foot". Charlize Theron in "Monster". The few times that this hasn't been the case: Tom Cruise in "Born on the Fourth of July" and Brad Pitt in "12 Monkeys". Otherwise the academy loves a crippled old ugly person. If they're gay. BINGO! The deeper the debilitation, the stronger the chances for the award. Example: Dustin Hoffman in "Rain Man" and Tom Hanks in "Philadelphia".
3. Career. If an actor has been around awhile without ever having won the award, they are automatic winners. The only time this hasn't been true is with that old lady from "Titanic". Other than that, old "friends" always get the nod. It's a charity vote and it sucks.
4. Dark Horse. There is a streak of youth in the academy that somehow is always able to show that "impact on the art" is more important than actual, "talent". This was true in the case of "Midnight Cowboy" and "American Beauty". Both films were average in skill level, yet both won the big award. This sentiment is what wins Clint Eastwood most of his awards. "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby" were not the best films of that year by far, but Clint is a publicity machine. He spends little on his films so he can spend three times as much promoting them to the academy. Not you! The academy. He loves to play the Career card with the Dark Horse twist. "My films are not showy, just great!" ... Very broody. Very Clint.
5. If you ain't never heard of them, don't vote for them. The only category in which a nobody will win the academy award is "supporting role". These categories are set up to recognize nobodies that may be something in the future. Sadly, this can also be a kiss of death for some. Examples: Mira Sorvino, Marisa Tomei, Cuba Gooding, Timothy Hutton. These are people that shined in one role and then fell off the face of the planet. If they hadn't won the award, you wouldn't even know who I was talking about. (Do you remember the name of the guy from "The Crying Game" that lost?) Sometimes this award is also were they will recognize an old friend on his way out, or so it would seem. Example: Paul Scofield in "Quiz Show".
6. Politics are bad. If your film, or you personally, or your performance has political overtones, forget it. No one likes a preacher. This is also called the Oliver Stone/Tim Robbins condition. Both men have made interesting films but they always have secret agendas to them and so therefore they rarely get nods. Tim Robbins does get nods, but he is not as "loud" politically as he used to be.
7. Don't show, or reject the award, and it's never again. The award has been given out to two big named stars that refused it; Marlon Brando and George C. Scott. Neither man ever won the award after their snubbing.
8. Never been done before. The academy loves to shock you, as they see it. In their minds, voting for the first black actor or the first Latino actor or a child, is always a good way to mix things up. However, once it's done, it takes twenty years before it will happen again. So, as they say, "Don't bet on the young colored horse to win." This trend is actually disappearing as of late because the old bigoted members are dying off. Thankfully.
9. The best sunset always wins the best picture. Historically, the film with the best vision of the sun setting or rising or breaking through the clouds, is always the winner. Old people love a good sunset as they see sunsets, metaphorically, as the best part of life, which is where most of them are. So it's tongue in cheek to them.
10. Money. Or the Jerry Bruckeheimer rule. If you make shit, you are shit. The academy doesn't like money makers. They like film. If you're using film to make money, then don't look for a nod.
11. Television. If you are a television star or dabble in television with a certain amount of frequency, forget it. The lesser art of television is enough to screw you out a nod.
12. One face, one role. If you are one dimensional and can only pull off one character, forget it. This could be called the Keanu Reeves/Christopher Walken award. True, Walken did get a nod earlier in his career, but never again. He is going to have to wait for the "career" nod and win.
Okay, that's it. Take these rules and apply them to this year's nominees. See what you come up with. If you were worried about the other spots....
As far as the technical awards. They don't even make the show. They are usually handed out a day before in a small ceremony which is held in a hotel ballroom and they only get a small mention on the nationally televised award show. These awards are all voted on by technical specialists and so therefore, are genuine awards. Thankfully, the aging academy had no say in this department.
I will post my choices for the winners tomorrow. For now, take the rules from above and visit oscar.com to size up who you think will win and then we can compare notes tomorrow. Be advised, the academy does nominate people that they know will never win. The nomination is their reward... That's the way they see it. Look at them as fillers.
posted by Daniel Loomis | 11:44 AM
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